ELECTIONS IN HARYANA: WHICH WAY THE WAVE WILL SWING?

                                                        By KIRAN DEEP                     

I remember the year 2004, when people from far flung areas of Haryana were eagerly waiting for Congress president Sonia Gandhi as part of her road show before the Lok Sabha elections at Gohana town of Sonepat district in Haryana. People of all ages were there to see the “lady with a beautiful skin”, with some women even expressing their desire to touch her. The small place located in the market was barricaded so that Sonia Gandhi could meet and greet the people. But, as is the norm during elections, Sonia Gandhi, who was scheduled to reach in the morning, arrived quite late in the evening. On her trail was a cavalcade of vehicles carrying politicians, party workers and journalists from the national capital. People waited patiently the whole day, but lost their cool when they were told that an interaction with her wouldn’t be possible. People broke the barricade and NSG commandos had to swing into action while the police resorted to a lathicharge to manage the crowd. I also had to run for safety, as I was also camping at the spot since morning for my assignment with national English daily. Such was the charisma of Sonia Gandhi!

Cut to the present situation….a decade later, the scene is quite different. Congress is carrying the weight of a humiliating defeat in the Lok Sabha elections. BJP has made history by winning complete majority. In Haryana too, the Narendra Modi wave secured 7 of the 10 seats for BJP, with one seat going to Congress and two going the INLD way.

Under these circumstances, the state Assembly elections, scheduled to be held on October 15, are expected to throw up many surprises. The Congress headed by Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who ruled the state for the 10 years now, is facing a strong anti-incumbency wave due to his style of functioning and dissension. To Hooda’s and the party’s consternation, many of Congress senior leaders have already joined hands with BJP. Leading the pack is Union minister Rao Inderjit Singh. Recently, senior leader Chaudhary Birender Singh also quit the party to join the BJP. In a major setback for the Congress, Vinod Sharma, considered the right hand of the CM Hooda, too quit the Congress and floated his own party, Jan Chetna Party. So, Hooda is on a sticky wicket.

The Indian National Lok Dal, headed by Om Parkash Chautala, was voted out of power in the 2005 assembly elections. Among other things that went against the INLD were the leader’s autocratic style of functioning and increase in the crime rate. This time situation is better for INLD than the last assembly election. However, the INLD supremo Om Parkash Chautala is in jail along with his son Ajay Chautala following their conviction in the JBT recruitment scam. By the time the state went into the next elections, I felt the situation had not improved for INLD. It turned out true when Congress managed to win the elections and Hooda once again formed the government with the help of Haryana Janhit Congress breakaway MLAs and independents in 2005.

However, the INLD seems to be in a better position this time, mainly due to the strong anti-incumbency wave against the Congress and the allegations of corruption against the Congress in allotting agricultural land to builders at throwaway prices. But it still not that strong that it would be able to form the next government all alone. It would need a partner, but who is the question. Had the supremo Om Parkash Chautala been out of jail, he would have been able to swing the voters in his favour. But, it is his son Abhey Chautala who is at the helm of affairs and he definitely does not enjoy the same appeal.

On the other hand, Haryana Janhit Congress led by its chief Kuldeep Bishnoi, who broke his alliance with BJP to join hands with Vinod Sharma-led Jan Chetna Party, will have to really work hard to tilt the balance in his favour. And, he doesn’t even have the sympathy and loyalty factor enjoyed by his father former chief minister Bhajan Lal.

The flavor of elections in a state known for its “Aaya Ram and Gaya Ram” politics has changed this time due to the breakaway factions. One of them, Congress MP from Karnal, Arvind Kumar Sharma, who joined the BSP recently and is being projected as its chief ministerial candidate, will have a tough time proving his credentials. BSP had won the Chhachhrauli seat in the last assembly elections and had supported the Congress government. Then there is former Haryana minister and Independent MLA from Sirsa city, Gopal Goyal Kanda, who had withdrawn support to the Hooda government and launched his own political party, Haryana Lokhit Party. As Kanda is facing trial in the suicide case of air-hostess Geetika Sharma and is currently out on bail, he is not expected to have a smooth sail.

Finally, the Aam Aadmi Party! Though it was expected to add to the spice in the state elections, the defeat in the Lok Sabha elections compelled AAP to stay away from Haryana.

There is no doubt that issues in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections are different, with the Assembly elections being more about local issues. It will be much interesting to see this time whether BJP riding high on the Modi wave will be able to form the government all alone or whether INLD can assume power independently or even more interestingly, Congress would rewrite history by making a hat trick or whether it would be a hung house!!!

This Opinion published in the Lokmarg online Newspaper 

 http://lokmarg.com/elections-in-haryana-which-way-the-wave-will-swing/